I introduced a method in July of using Calls for Service data to estimate Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) numbers in near-real time. This method predicted 4,524 person and property crimes in the second quarter of 2015, good for an estimated 3.7 percent rise in UCR from the first quarter. In August, the NOPD reported 4,570 such crimes over the second quarter, good for an actual 4.2 percent increase relative to the first quarter of 2015.

In other words, the methodology was pretty sound.

Applying the same methodology to the recently completed third quarter of 2015 suggests there was a roughly 6.5 percent increase in UCR person and property crimes in New Orleans over that span.

There were approximately 8,278 Calls for Service of a presumed UCR crime in the first six months of 2015, and 4,488 in the third quarter. As the earlier post pointed out, Calls for Service can be used to predict about 93 percent of UCR crimes on average from 2011 to 2015.

(Editor’s note: Calls-for-service data are available online beginning with 2011 and provide our basis for comparison.)

By this measure, there were roughly 4,880 UCR crimes in New Orleans in the third quarter of 2015. This would represent a 6.8 percent increase from the second quarter and an 11 percent jump from the first quarter of 2015.

Pace of Person and Property Calls for Service, 2015
Pace of Person and Property Calls for Service, 2015

While UCR is rising in 2015, the city is still on pace for a 8.3 percent drop in person and property crimes relative to 2014. But this total, if realized, would represent an increase from city crime levels in 2011 through 2013.

Pace of Person and Property Crimes Calls for Service, 2011 - 2015
Pace of Person and Property Crimes Calls for Service, 2011 – 2015

Conclusion

Person and property crimes have recently climbed steadily higher since dropping in the first quarter of 2015. Without a reversal in this trend, New Orleans will experience its second straight year with lower gun violence but higher overall crime relative to 2011 through 2013.

This post was previously published by The New Orleans Advocate.