Six months of New Orleans crime are in the books which allows for an assessment of where the city stands in terms of numerous key metrics. This analysis in particular is intended to evaluate three areas: overall crime levels, shootings & murders, and armed robberies & carjackings.

Overall, crime has stayed relatively steady compared to where it has been since 2014. Changing response times have impacted crime levels but they are largely in line with the higher tier reached in 2014. The successful reduction of shootings and murder begun in 2013 has stayed consistent in 2016 with the city on pace for the lowest number of murders in decades. Conversely, armed robberies and carjackings are happening far more frequently than they did three years ago.

Overall Crime

For this analysis overall crime can be defined as Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Part I crimes which include both property (theft, auto theft and burglary) as well as violent (murder, assault, robbery and rape) crimes. The percentage of annual UCR crime typically rises each quarter after with roughly 48 percent of UCR crimes occurring in the first half of the year and 52 percent in the second half of the year.

UCR crime was up roughly 10 percent in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same timeframe in 2015 though much, if not all, of this difference can likely be attributed to improved response times and better reporting of sex crimes. Official statistics from NOPD won’t be available for several weeks, but Calls for Service is a very useful tool for estimating changes in UCR.

This method shows crime fell an estimated 1.9 percent in the second quarter of 2016 compared to the first quarter with a margin of error between 0 percent and 3.8 percent decline. A 1.9 percent drop in crime would put New Orleans up roughly 5.9 percent in UCR crime relative to this point in 2015. A 1.9 percent drop in the second quarter would be roughly 3.3 percent above the second quarter of 2015.

The below graph charts the annualized pace of UCR Part I Calls for Service over time. The black line represents 2016 and shows a rise in the last few weeks as crime is close to 2014 levels and nearly 6 percent above 2015 levels.

Much of the drop in crime in the second quarter of 2016 may be attributable to longer response times compared to the first quarter. This has the effect of deflating non-emergency crimes by increasing the likelihood that a victim will have departed the scene when officers arrive.

Shootings and Murder

There were 206 shooting incidents in New Orleans in the first half of 2016 with 60 of them being fatal. That total represents 7 more incidents than the first six months of 2015 and 20 fewer fatal incidents. There were 66 murders in New Orleans through June compared with 92 through June 2015. It is worth noting that two homicides are not counted in the official tally due to questions about where they occurred.

At the current pace New Orleans would finish 2016 with 415 shooting incidents and 134 murders. This pace, if realized, would represent a 5.5 percent increase in shootings from 2015 but a 16.4 percent decrease in murders. The 134 murders, if realized, would be the fewest in New Orleans since the city had just 122 in 1970.

 

The likelihood is, however, that a similar number of shootings in the second half of 2016 will produce more murders. The below table shows the percentage of shootings ending in a fatality over six month stretches since 2010.

 

New Orleans saw similarly low percentages of shooting incidents ending in a fatality in the second half of 2010 and first half of 2014, and both times the percent rose considerably over the following half. The good news is that there have been fewer shootings each of the last six years in the second half of the year though that has not always produced fewer murders.  The bad news is that murder will likely rise in New Orleans at some point in the relatively near future without a significant reduction in shootings.

The level of shootings has stayed relatively consistent in New Orleans at roughly 400 shootings per year since dipping in mid-2013. This can be seen on the below graph showing the rolling number of shooting incidents over 36 days from the beginning of 2011 (encompassing all of 2010) through the end of June.

 

Armed Robberies and Carjackings

There were 417 armed robberies and carjackings over the first six months of 2016, four fewer than the same period in 2015. Armed robberies and carjackings are heavily seasonal crimes with the highest concentration of incidents occurring over the last three months of the year.

On average, armed robberies have been up 35 percent over the last three years compared to the three year average from 2010 to 2012.  Nearly half of all armed robberies and carjackings in New Orleans occurred in NOPD’s 5th District (St Roch, Seventh Ward, etc), 7th District (New Orleans East) or 8th District (French Quarter & CBD). Five zip codes accounted for 58 percent of all 2016 armed robberies.

On average, armed robberies have been up 35 percent over the last three years compared to the three year average from 2010 to 2012.  Nearly half of all armed robberies and carjackings in New Orleans occurred in NOPD’s 5th District (St Roch, Seventh Ward, etc), 7th District (New Orleans East) or 8th District (French Quarter & CBD). Five zip codes accounted for 58 percent of all 2016 armed robberies.