There’s no easy way around it, July 2016 was one of the worst months for gun violence in New Orleans in many years. The numbers aren’t yet fully complete as cause of death behind two deaths are still under investigation by the coroner, but the numbers we do have are a bit astounding:
- There were 48 shooting incidents (NOTE: this number includes a burning body discovered early in the morning on August 1st. The cause of death has not been identified so this will be updated once it is. I am also counting a burning body found on July 25th just a few blocks from another shooting victim as a double murder even though it is still an unclassified death. If the coroner finds differently these numbers will be adjusted). That’s tied with May and July 2015 for the fifth most shootings in a single month — the most shooting incidents in a month since the start of 2010 came in April 2010 (52).
- Of the 48 shooting incidents, 20 were fatal tying July 2015 and March 2011 for the third most fatal shooting incidents in a month.
- There were 25 murders in July including the body discovered early on August 1st. That’s the most murders in a single month since before 2011 and accounts for 27 percent of the city’s murders to date. New Orleans was on pace for 133 murders as of the end of June, and the city is on pace for 157 as of the end of July.
- The end of the month was particularly bad with the city experiencing 25 shootings and 15 murders from July 18 through the early morning hours of August 1st.
July 2016 combined a large number of shootings with the city’s luck regressing toward average. At the end of June I wrote that the same number of shootings in New Orleans would likely lead to more murders over the second half of the year. Only 29 percent of 2016’s shooting incidents were fatal through June, well below the expected average of ~35 to 36 percent. The 41 percent of fatal July shootings brought the annual average to just over 31 percent, still below average on the year.
Over 30 percent of July shooting incidents occurred in the 3rd District which is well above the district’s average for 2016.
|NOPD District||July Shooting Incidents||2016 Proportion of Shooting Incidents|
Shootings have occurred with remarkable consistency in New Orleans since the start of 2014. New Orleans averaged 450 shootings per year from 2010 to 2012, had 362 in 2013 and averaged 412 in 2014 and 2015. The consistency about 10 percent below 2010-2012’s level is continuing so far in 2016.
The available data suggests shootings may slow down in August in September but that a relatively high percentage of shootings will be fatal for the rest of the year and possibly into 2017. Anything could happen over the remainder of the year though, hopefully it’s fewer shootings and murders.