Any crime analysis done in the first half of the year really needs the disclaimer that “it’s early” and this analysis is no different. We are only 59 days into 2017 and a lot of the current trends could change over the next 10 months. That said, the available evidence suggests crime, driven by an increase in property crime and gun violence, is up considerably so far this year.
Official crime numbers are out so time to revisit the Change in NOLA Crime, 2010 to 2016.
The official numbers are in from NOPD: citywide Uniform Crime Report Part I crime rose 4.4 percent from 2015 to 2016. This largely jives with the forecast I made in late December of a roughly 5 percent jump last year. Continue reading “New Orleans Crime Rose 4.4% in 2016”
Some types of New Orleans crime rise and fall with the calendar and many do not. Few crimes, however, are so centered around one specific time a year as pickpockets are to Mardi Gras season. So the Sacramento Kings shouldn’t feel bad about DeMarcus Cousins getting stolen from them last night, it’s happening a lot down here right about now.
The start to 2017 has been terrible in terms of gun violence in New Orleans. Shootings are up 63 percent relative to this day in 2016 and murders are up 145 percent over that span. The rise in gun violence in New Orleans at the start of 2017 is not some spontaneous happenstance, but rather it reflects a change that began here toward the middle of 2016.
There is evidence, however, that gun violence may be slowing down or at least is no longer rising as quickly.
Occasionally I take a break from writing and tweeting about New Orleans crime in order to talk with people about New Orleans crime. There were two such occasions last week that I wanted to share.
First I had a great conversation with Oliver Thomas on WBOK. Sometimes you do radio and the callers either ask terrible, loaded questions or just preach at you for 30 minutes. This was not one of those times.
The second was a long chat with State Senator JP Morrell. We talked a bit about crime but then talked about bigger structural issues facing the city including whether New Orleans should have an elected police chief. JP and I came down on opposite ends of that spectrum but we might not be so far apart.
There has been a lot of talk about the city’s newly proposed security plan which, among other things, calls for a sizable expansion of high definition security cameras and an infrastructure from which to theoretically monitor those cameras. There has been lots of feedback on the morality of the plan and its potential impact on the city’s unique music culture.
This purpose of this post is not to discuss the plan’s morality or potential impact on the community’s lifestyles and culture. Rather this post will assume the city is planning to add cameras and look at some of the issues surrounding where they should be placed if they are going to be effective in fighting crime. Continue reading “More Thoughts On Cameras & NOLA Crime”
Hopefully by now it is clear that longer response times in New Orleans have a tendency to deflate crimes. This is especially true with property crimes like theft and vehicle burglary and less true from person crimes (homicide, rape, robbery).
NOPD’s manpower issues are well documented as is the impact of those issues on how NOPD polices and response times. I thought it would be interesting, therefore, to take a closer look at the specific changes that have occurred in response to falling manpower. Continue reading “How NOPD Staffing Has Changed: 2013 to 2017”