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The Pessimist’s Murder Forecast for the Rest of 2017 in NOLA

Absent a significant reduction in gun violence it appears likely that New Orleans will see another jump in murder in 2017.

Thus concluded my 2017 murder forecast published late in December 2016. As we approach nearly five full months into the year it is apparent that both the conclusions and the underlying analysis were spot on. Continue reading “The Pessimist’s Murder Forecast for the Rest of 2017 in NOLA”

Data on New Orleans Homicides from 1968 to Present Available Online

A few weeks ago I began playing around with the FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Reports. These datasets contain information on individual murder victims and offenders that are aggregated and published under the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report program. It takes some canoodling, but the data on murder exists all the way from 1968 to 2015. Add in some data from NOPD and the final product is a record of nearly every homicide victim in New Orleans from 1968 to present available here for anyone to view.

Continue reading “Data on New Orleans Homicides from 1968 to Present Available Online”

Lessons from Phoenix: How Manpower Impacts Murder Clearances

The National Archive of Criminal Justice Data has raw data freely available (you’ll need a login) to hundreds — thousands? — of studies and publications related to criminal justice. One of the studies that has caught my eye is the “Evaluation of the Phoenix, Arizona, Homicide Clearance Initiative, 2003-2005”.

Continue reading “Lessons from Phoenix: How Manpower Impacts Murder Clearances”

The Complexity of Murder Clearance Rates

NOPD Chief Michael Harrison went before the New Orleans City Council’s Criminal Justice Committee on Thursday to talk crime in the first few months of 2017. Per Harrison NOPD’s murder clearance rate is 31 percent so far in 2017 after clearing 41 percent of cases in 2016.

Continue reading “The Complexity of Murder Clearance Rates”

On NOLA’s Murder Clearance Rate

NOPD’s murder clearance rate and potential trouble within the homicide division have been in the news lately. I’ve previously posted about New Orleans’ falling murder clearance rate but I wanted to revisit the subject in light of its importance.

Continue reading “On NOLA’s Murder Clearance Rate”

The Benefits of Fewer Burglar Alarms

The burglar alarm ordinance, passed nearly two years ago, is scheduled to finally go into effect on May 1st. As a refresher: people will receive a warning at their first alarm, a $75 fine at their second alarm, a $150 fine at their third and fourth alarms, and NOPD will stop responding after that. Continue reading “The Benefits of Fewer Burglar Alarms”

NOLA 1st Quarter Crime Review

The first three months of 2017 are in the books and it appears that overall Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Part I crime was up about 5.5 percent from the first quarter of 2016. As I’ve written several times before, Calls for Service works as a good (though imperfect) predictor of the city’s official UCR counts which won’t be released for several weeks. Continue reading “NOLA 1st Quarter Crime Review”

A Remarkable Slow Down in Armed Robberies

Armed robberies in New Orleans were up about eight percent in the first two months of 2017 relative to the first two months of 2016, but then they slowed down. To a remarkable degree.

Continue reading “A Remarkable Slow Down in Armed Robberies”

Perception vs Reality of Crime in NOLA

A November 2016 Pew article by John Gramlich showed how perceptions of crime tend to conflict with the reality of crime on a national level. Gramlich compared the percentage of people saying crime was rising to the reality of falling violent crime in America over the last two decades as shown in the below graphic.

Continue reading “Perception vs Reality of Crime in NOLA”

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