Armed robberies in New Orleans were up about eight percent in the first two months of 2017 relative to the first two months of 2016, but then they slowed down. To a remarkable degree.
A November 2016 Pew article by John Gramlich showed how perceptions of crime tend to conflict with the reality of crime on a national level. Gramlich compared the percentage of people saying crime was rising to the reality of falling violent crime in America over the last two decades as shown in the below graphic.
One of the effects of a smaller police force has been a sizable drop in the number of officers assigned to NOPD’s homicide unit. As I previously showed, NOPD had 41 sworn officers assigned to homicide in mid-2013 and has only 29 officers assigned there as of this month.
Crime on Bourbon Street is back in the news making this a perfect time to examine what types of Calls for Service originate there. To do this I took all 80,000 or so 2017 Calls for Service and identified those with an address on Bourbon Street. Note that this will miss incidents occurring just off Bourbon Street but it provides a good estimate of what goes on there.
Crime is up in New Orleans in the first quarter of 2017. The previously linked post discusses a number of possible explanations for why that might be the case, but one undeniable conclusion is that a rise in vehicle burglaries is a major contributor.
I wrote a little while ago about how gun violence might have been slowing down in NOLA and the good news is that the slowdown appears to be even clearer than it was a few weeks ago. The question remaining, therefore, is whether this is a long term return to previous gun violence patterns or a short term drop with a floor well above previous highs.
Any crime analysis done in the first half of the year really needs the disclaimer that “it’s early” and this analysis is no different. We are only 59 days into 2017 and a lot of the current trends could change over the next 10 months. That said, the available evidence suggests crime, driven by an increase in property crime and gun violence, is up considerably so far this year.
Official crime numbers are out so time to revisit the Change in NOLA Crime, 2010 to 2016.
The official numbers are in from NOPD: citywide Uniform Crime Report Part I crime rose 4.4 percent from 2015 to 2016. This largely jives with the forecast I made in late December of a roughly 5 percent jump last year. Continue reading “New Orleans Crime Rose 4.4% in 2016”